Rates, Liquidity and Market Pricing — Weekly Macro Note | 3 April 2026

By Matheus Balthar · Global / Brazil

This macro letter examines how resilient U.S. demand and elevated long-term yields affect asset pricing, what Blue Owl's redemption requests reveal about liquidity risk in private credit, and how geopolitical and commodity shocks transmit into Brazilian assets. It concludes with implications for duration, Brazilian risk assets and Bitcoin, together with explicit conditions that would change the assessment.

Key points

• U.S. disinflation coexisted with resilient consumption, while elevated long-term yields continued to pressure duration-sensitive assets.
• Blue Owl's redemption requests illustrated the liquidity mismatch between private assets and periodic investor withdrawals.
• Brazil benefited from lower long-term rates and commodity exposure, but remained vulnerable to inflation, fiscal and geopolitical risks.
• Bitcoin may diversify portfolios in stable regimes but should not be treated as a reliable short-term safe haven during liquidity shocks.

The file

Download the PDF112 KB

U.S. ratesprivate creditBrazilBitcoinliquidityportfolio risk

All researchThe portfolios