Apoena Research
Our family's money, measured against the CDI
One portfolio holds all of the family's invested money. From 2 November 2026 it runs under three mandates: Macro, Equities and Credit. We publish how it has done against the CDI, Brazil's overnight interbank rate, in percentages only. Family capital only, no fees, nothing for sale.
Returns to 30 September 2026, the last month-end valuation, in reais, before personal tax · record before the mandates of 2 November 2026 · ° estimated month: a large deposit arrived on a day with no valuation · past performance is no guarantee of future results. How we measure →
Three mandates
From 2 November 2026 the portfolio runs under three mandates, each with its own written investment policy, goal and loss limits. The family's allocation policy sets how much goes to each.
Macro
45%of the portfolio · range 40% to 50%
CDI + 3.0% a year over rolling 36 months
Benchmark: 57% Brazil's five-year fixed rate, 39% the S&P 500 hedged into reais, 4% CDI
Brazil's yield curve and global shares hedged into reais, with a tactical layer in rates, currencies, gold, bitcoin and the index. Each position is sized by what it adds to the portfolio's risk.
Loss limits: a review at a 7.5% fall from peak, less risk at 12.5%, a 20% ceiling; at most 30% in unhedged currency
Equities
10%of the portfolio · range 5% to 15%
1.0 point a year above its benchmark over rolling 36 months
Benchmark: 85% Ibovespa, 15% CDI
Shares listed on B3, held directly and chosen company by company, long-biased; index futures only to set the market exposure and options only to protect. Shares abroad sit in Macro.
Loss limits: a review at a 15% fall from peak, less risk at 22.5%, a 30% ceiling; net exposure 70% to 100%, at most 30% sold short
Credit
45%of the portfolio · range 40% to 50%
CDI + 1.75% a year over rolling 36 months
Benchmark: the CDI
Listed credit funds (real-estate, infrastructure and agribusiness receivables) and high-grade private credit held directly: debentures, bank paper and senior receivables funds. Credit analysis by Alexandre Vallim.
Loss limits: a review at a 7% fall from peak, less risk at 10%, a 15% ceiling; at most 5% with any one economic group
The portfolio moves to these weights from 2 November 2026 with new money, coupons and maturities; no bond held to maturity is sold to get there, so until then a mandate outside its range is on its way, not in breach.
Research
Recently published analysis
The family portfolio beat the CDI until the vote; now we will sell its Brazilian shares
Ahead of the CDI to 30 September, 5.01% against 4.59%; the run-off of 25 October cost an estimated 5.9% in a day, and the Brazilian shares will be sold.
Macro Letter · 25 Aug 2026A Temporary Bid for the Long End
Treasury buybacks can repair liquidity. They cannot repair the fiscal path.
Macro Letter · 3 Apr 2026Rates, Liquidity and Market Pricing
Softer US inflation did not yet justify chasing duration; Blue Owl's redemption requests were a liquidity signal, not a credit event.
Policy
The rules from 2 November 2026
- Three mandates. Macro 45%, Equities 10% and Credit 45% of the portfolio from 2 November 2026, each kept within a range.
- Goals. Each mandate has its own, against the CDI or its benchmark, judged over 36 months. A goal, not a promise.
- Loss limits. Each mandate has its own fall from peak that brings a written review, a lower one that cuts its risk and a ceiling.
- No borrowing. What the portfolio holds is never more than it is worth; derivatives are listed on B3.